The sharemarket

[bogan_bob]

In attempt to stir up some intellectual conversation here (no offence guys but i think the argument about road conduct has shaken out the morons from the sensible drivers), i have started this thread on the ASX.

Does anyone have shares? What companies? Do you have any hot tips on the next best thing? Are you thinking of investing? Again what companies and why? Does anyone want to know more about the ASX? and so on and so on.

Currently there is a hypothetical game on, run by the ASX, where you have a theoretical 50 k to invest in 100 pre selected companies. The person that makes the most money on top of this 50 k after 3 months wins a real 5 k portfolio.

Peronally, its shown me that there is chances to make much money on the sharemarket, but at the same time unwise investing can lose it.

So, what do you all think?

[imaspy]

yeah. don't bother with T3. what a fucking waste of time. smart short-term money is on oil companies and associated non-renewable resources. but thats it. otherwise, dont invest in any car company, not even toyota. apart from a short term grab, the market is headed to uncharted territory in the next decade or so. risky business. ill keep my money under the matress until i see some sort of stability.

[Kranzy]

All off topic posts were removed. Keep on topic people.

In the off topic section of the forums that allows for anything "off topic"

Threads on things other than cars is fine on a car enthousiest sites. We all have  other interests besides our cars which can all be viewed and descussed within the antrx community.

[Febrile]

yeah. don't bother with T3. what a fucking waste of time.

I think this is wrong.  The price of shares is merely a reflection of what people believe the company is worth to them, in terms of dividends (the value of the share is supposed to be equal to the net present value of the earnings from that share).  So right now, people don't think Telstra is going to pay many dividends in future.  However, this is just a bit silly, IMO.  I mean, they have basically an entire monopoly on the communications infrastructure in Australia.  The only thing holding them back are the regulations which the government applies to the company, in terms of providing service etc.  I think once that's sorted out, Telstra can be as profitable as it likes.  I'm not sure exactly what the regulations are (and some are important, such as regional communications and the provision thereof), but for example, as I understand it Telstra has to let other phone companies access the infrastructure, which I think is a bit silly.  Telecommunications of this nature are a natural monopoly - why do we have so many competing firms?

Anyway, these are my thoughts.  If I had a few dollars spare, I'd buy into Telstra.  I think in the long term, they will be a very good investment (I mean, it's not like they're going to go belly up tomorrow: the government can't keep the leash so tight that the company fails, otherwise it will unavoidably be unable to fulfill it's supply requirements).

[imaspy]

my problem with t3 (and i guess then, that this kinda applies for the sharemarket in general), is that one of the main factors in the condition of the share market is too many rumours, innuendo, 2nd guessing and spooking/scare-mongering. same with oil etc etc... thats why it drains my confidence. course there are solid / wise things to invest in (wow! did i just contradict myself?! ) but mmm.... so much risk, when things just on such whims these days.

[Febrile]

Well, here's a little textbook stuff for you - there's essentially 3 ways to make money from the sharemarket:

• Arbitrage: the simultaneous buying in one market and selling in another (e.g. the exchanges in Perth and Sydney) when there is a price differential, thereby making a profit from market imperfections (this is a risk free profit, but nowadays is hard to do due to instant communications).
• Speculation: speculating about whether shares will go up or down, and trading accordingly.  Risky because you are betting on the unknown.
• Dividends.

So, really the only risk comes if you want to make capital gains via speculation.  But there's nothing stopping you from buying shares that are consistently offering dividends, then drop them when they start to underperform.  Not a lot of risk or worry there.

Also, as you infer, much of the risk from speculation comes from speculation itself.  It's when people get wind of rumours or misinformation that massive market shifts occur - like with Telstra, all this bad press is scaring the speculators away, but when it's died down, things will return to normal.  And hopefully Sol Tortilla has some kind of longer term plan in place to actually make some profit

[Chadza]

hehe, that ASX schools sharemarket game back in 2001 my team of 3 came second in Australia.  We sold out our "winning shares" too early as we thought they had plateued. We ended up with a Portfolio valued at $93,000 or something. The winners had $108,000 with the same shares.

All good when its not your money!

[imaspy]

lol! exactly

[bogan_bob]

hehe, that ASX schools sharemarket game back in 2001 my team of 3 came second in Australia.  We sold out our "winning shares" too early as we thought they had plateued. We ended up with a Portfolio valued at $93,000 or something. The winners had $108,000 with the same shares.

All good when its not your money!

LOL its like playing poker with chips not worth anything i.e. not for money - everyone is willing to make more risky decisions

T3 is sure to be crap but ithink resources are the way especially local companies, not sure about other states but SA is in the middle of an alleged resources boom, so there has to be money to be made.

Ive been keeping an eye on billabong, the only way is up Decent dividends, continual growth, good stuff. Mind you when i finally scrape the funds together to buy a few, they ll drop off

[cruizer]

I say the best way to go with shares is long term investment. If you want short term gains you have to make decent risks...high returns = high risk. Im saving to buy some shares in which i can invest in long term, so then in many years i can hopefully make my profit!

[Resin]

I have been trading for a awhile ....my first shares were the T2 .............i dont have them anymore and sold loosing a nice tidy amount of money but its would be double that now if i still had them ......T3 ...maybe worth it ...they are hell of alot lower than t2 in price so maybe the only way is up  .......

but yea safe shares get boring .........hehe i think early on its best just to stick ur money into a high interest savings account ....cause i think i probably would have been better off ..maybe ....

You make money and u gotta be happy when u loose money or u shouldnt trade .........and yea its is much easier to trade in fake money!!! hahah

Also trading in very low value high risk surf the gitter shares can be very rewarding but .....also very un rewarding ....

i do think its a great learning experience and its alot more interesting / nerve-racking than a savings account ! hehehe

[Loop]

I don't "play" the market, but I have a pretty good portfolio of Woolworths (bought them when they floated), T1 (bought them when they floated too).  I did have GIO and got stung when they were the subject of a hostile takeover, made a tidy profit out of Westpac (needed the money to buy my house).  The shares that I'm accumulating are more long-term shares that pay a fully-franked dividend.